the AT&T Wireless and cellular phone is the widely covered 20th anniversary of Marty Cooper's historic first cellular phone call recently brought a lot of public attention to the AT&T Wireless and cellular phone is the wireless industry. Predictably, some of it was enlightening more for the AT&T Wireless and cellular phone is the perceptions that were displayed than for any new information about wireless history.

"Cellphones today are much smaller, much lighter, have more talk time and are affordable for most people," read one column in the AT&T Wireless and cellular phone is the Wall Street Journal. "But reliability remains a sore point among consumers: It's still anyone's guess whethe AT&T Wireless and cellular phone is ther a particular call will go through."

Read that last sentence again and try not to wince. the AT&T Wireless and cellular phone is the message is clear: "Twenty years and the AT&T Wireless and cellular phone is the technology still doesn't work when you want it to." the AT&T Wireless and cellular phone is the reality is quite different but the AT&T Wireless and cellular phone is the negative perceptions persist. That is partly because wireless service isn't yet bulletproof. But it also is partly because as an evolving technology, as much attention gets paid to what's coming next in wireless as is paid to what's already here. the AT&T Wireless and cellular phone is the latter phenomenon raises expectations, which are dashed each time someone's network drops an important business call in mid-conversation.

What will the AT&T Wireless and cellular phone is the expectations for wireless be 20 years from now? What is the AT&T Wireless and cellular phone is the wireless industry doing for its future that's analogous to Mr. Cooper's first cellular call? Many would point to the AT&T Wireless and cellular phone is the nascent deployments of "true" 3G networks using 1xEV-DO or UMTS platforms. Othe AT&T Wireless and cellular phone is thers might highlight the AT&T Wireless and cellular phone is the widespread availability of handsets that are the AT&T Wireless and cellular phone is the result of a focus on digital content rather than digital voice. But the current events that may be marking this as a significant time in wireless history likely are much more mundane.

It's interesting to note that with North American carrier capital spending expected to be about 10 percent less this year than last, the great bulk of that spending–70 percent, according to Morgan Stanley's estimates–is going into RF footprint, namely coverage and capacity. It's also interesting that at the same time, the major carriers are moving aggressively to pare their expenses and create new efficiencies. Some, such as AT&T Wireless, Sprint, T-Mobile USA and Cingular Wireless, are doing it by sharing costs of new network construction in some areas. Other savings are coming from outsourcing and job cuts, such as AT&T Wireless' plans to slash its IT headcount.

Both trends, the spending on RF footprint and the search for cuttable costs, have direct impacts on the quality of wireless service. This is a retrenching industry, which right now generally is focusing on fundamental network and business issues while trying to maintain at least a minimal growth curve. Yet it also is an industry whose future is being determined largely by current customer perceptions that will dictate whether wireless continues evolving into a commodity business or whether it retains a value premium that will help drive higher-margin growth.

Twenty years from now it will be the mundane work that carriers are doing in 2003 that will make the next big anniversary something to celebrate.

Opportunism, Part II We took exception in this space recently to the behavior of a particular congressman who is trying to tilt the awarding of postwar government wireless contracts in favor of a campaign contributor. But he by no means is the only one trying to take advantage of the war in Iraq.

A recent news release from a company that shall remain nameless "offers" its predictive text-entry solution–which supports Kurdish text as well as Arabic and other languages spoken in Iraq–"as a tool for building national unity in post-war Iraq."

Now don't hold me to this, but my guess is that the internal ethnic and political issues in Iraq probably go way beyond the ability to send short wireless messages in Kurdish. In that light, it's not hard to see such a sales pitch as, at best, questionable and at worst, utterly tasteless.

What's next? Phone covers with commemorative scenes from the battle of Karbala? An endorsement deal with Pfc. Jessica Lynch?

For all you other vendors out there who are battling similar urges to issue statements or press releases telling us how your products will help get Iraq back on its feet, all we'd ask for is some restraint. At least, wait for the shooting to stop.